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March has arrived: A college basketball Catchup

Luke Chapman
32–48 minutes

THE BEST MONTH OF THE YEAR HAS ARRIVED. With champ week starting this week, fans and casual viewers will start to look at resumes, records, and seeding projections, trying to figure out which team’s are built for March. The 25-26 season has provided some very interesting storylines between one of the greatest, if not the greatest freshmen year class ever, two of the greatest KenPom team’s ever, and the rise of an unexpected Mid-Major in Miami OH. Before we start the madness, it is worth taking a step back to understand how we got here.

Each year, once we get to conference play at the end of December and beginning of January it is a full on sprint to Selection Sunday. It was only about 70 days ago since conference play had started and now we are just five days away from the First Four games on Tuesday March 17th.

Todays piece is going to be jam-packed to catch everyone up on the College Basketball season. To begin, we will dive into the multi-bid conferences, highlighting the best team’s from each conference and who has the best chance at cutting down the nets. From there we go into the mid-major’s and others who could wreck a bracket, before diving into the bubble picture. Then we will close it out with a couple predictions: John Wooden Award, Werner Ladder Naismith Coach of the Year, Conference Tournament Winners, and my Final Four.

Underneath I have provided the sections that are in this piece, so it is easier to navigate for you guys:

The Big ten conference

  1. Michigan Wolverines(AP:3rd, Overall:28-2, Conf:18-1)

The Wolverines are led by by 2nd year coach, Dusty May. In just two year’s he has gotten the Wolverines back to the John Beilein days. They just won the Big Ten regular season title outright since the 20-21 season. They are looking to continue this run of dominance in March with winning the Big Ten Tournament and making a deep run in the NCAA Tournament as a #1 seed.

What stands out about this team is the length and size, combined with their solid guard play. They play a 9 man rotation with a lot of veterans on the team, one specifically being Yaxel Lendeborg who has been the Wolverines leading scorer. He does not just score. He makes plays all over the court, especially on the defensive end. He has the ability to guard 1-5. The other parts of the front court includes the 6’9 Morez Johnson and 7’3 Aday Mara. All three guys are averaging 10+ points and 7+ rebounds, while being forces on the defensive end.

But the key for the Wolverines in March is the guard play. Your front court can play well in March, but team’s usually only go as far as how good your guard play is. As you can see I am a bit nervous about this part with this team. Elliot Cadeau who has taken a massive leap from his first two year’s at North Carolina needs to continue his solid year. He is averaging 38.4% from beyond the arc compared to 32% and 18% his first two year’s at Carolina, which is a huge improvement. If that shot is falling during March and continues to facilitate as he usually does(5.5 APG), this team has everything it takes to become this year’s champion. As well as the other guards like Nimari Burnett, Trey McKenney, and LJ Cason who are all shooting 38% or higher from beyond the arc. This is as deep of a team you will see and have all the keys to go win a National Championship since 1989.

2. Michigan State Spartans(AP:8th, Overall:24-5, Conf:14-4)

As we all know the Spartans are led by the legendary Tom Izzo, who has the Spartans ready to go every year. They bring a toughness that The Big Ten and other team’s have trouble matching. This year it is no different with another elite guard at the helm with Jeremy Fears Jr. An extremely tough guard who has the ability to get into the paint to score or make a play for his teammates. Averaging 15.1 PPG and 9.1 APG, exactly what this Izzo team needs. Like I said before, in order to make a deep run in March they are going to need him to continue his great play. They are currently a 2 seed in the top part of the bracket, with the #1 overall seed Duke.

To get into this team a bit more. They have great veterans in the front court with Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper. Both are very aggressive and physical bigs on both sides of the ball. Kohler is a huge part of their PNR with Fears, he will either dive or can pop for a three(39.7% 3PA). He is also basically averaging a double double(12.4 PPG, 9.2 RPG). Pair these two and Fears with the length of their wings in Coen Carr(6’6) and Jordan Scott(6/7) they are a tough team to score and rebound against. One player who will be key for them moving forward is the 6th man Kur Teng, who can get hot from beyond the arc quickly. Shooting 38.7% from deep and helps this Michigan State team spread the floor more.

Obviously Izzo’s team’s are always a tough out against anyone, but the problem with this team is they might not have enough shooting and guard play to make a deep run. They lost one of their shooters in Divine Ugochukwu, who was shooting 44.2% from three before a season ending injury. They are not very deep off the bench, only playing 3 others who do not play big minutes, besides Kur Teng. Jeremy Fears Jr shoots less than 30% from deep and most defenses play off him. Just something to look at before putting them deep into your brackets.

3. Nebraska Cornhuskers(AP:11th, Overall:25-5, Conf:14-5)

This has been one of the biggest surprises in the country, not just the Big Ten. The job Fred Hoiberg has done with this group is quite remarkable and someone to look at for the Big Ten Coach of the Year. He has rebuild the huskers after a 21-14 season, going 7-13 in the Big Ten. Now they are heading into the dance as 3 seed with team that plays incredibly well together.

They are on the smaller side of things with an average height of 6’7 in the starting lineup. The thing is they spread defenses out with their perimeter shooting. They aren’t the most athletic or big team, which is why Fred Hoiberg has done a fantastic job with this group. There is non-stop movement on the offensive side to get good looks each possession, while on the other side of the ball they are a top 10 team in defensive efficiency.

They play as a unit on both sides of the ball that makes it hard to point out one or two guys on this team. As a team they are averaging 35% from deep, which is a huge part of their offense. If shots are falling, it has the ability to open up the driving lanes so much more. The two guys to look at for this team is the Iowa transfer Pryce Sandfort and Reink Mast. Pryce is the leading scorer(18.0 PPG) and shooting 40.4% from deep, which will be key for them to continue their success in March. Mast does a little bit of everything at 6’10 and will be a huge part of this run in March. It is a very gritty team like MSU and will be a tough out in March, but they do not have the ability to get to a final four.

4. Illinois Fighting Illini(AP:9th, Overall:23-7, Conf:14-5)

The Fighting Illini have been one of my favorite team’s to watch out of the Big Ten this year. Coached by Brad Underwood, who has this team playing like European pro team. This is the second best team in the Big Ten and a top 5 KenPom team this year. They have the perfect combination between freshmen stars and senior leaders that have the ability to make a very deep run in the tournament. Currently they are projected to be a 2 seed.

This is another very lengthy team with two 7 footers in the Ivisic brothers combined with 5 other’s who are 6’6 and above. This makes it incredibly difficult for offenses to get through their motions offensively. All three of their guards are averaging above 13 PPG, including the star freshman Keaton Wagler who is averaging 18 PPG on 45% from the field (Projected top 10 Pick in 2026 NBA Draft). Another player who has caught my eye is another freshman, David Mirkovic, the 6’9 forward has been a catalyst for this team in every aspect. Has the ability to spread the floor with his shooting ability(37.9% 3PA) and a huge rebounder for them. With all of this, they are currently the number one team in the nation in offensive efficiency.

There has been one problem with them this year and its something they can’t control, injuries. Their veteran point guard in Kylan Boswell was out for a little over a month with a fractured hand, but since then he has elevated this team. Andrej Stojakovic another big guard for them, is still managing a high ankle sprain from Michigan State game on February 7th. I do think when the tournament arrives they will be as healthy as they have been all year. They have everything in order to make a final four. Between great guard play with Keaton Wagler and Kylan Boswell, big wings in David Mirkovic, Andrej Stojakovic, Ben Humrichous, Jake Davis, and their 7 foot centers. They are one of my favorites to watch this year and can really make noise in the tournament.

5. Purdue Boilermakers(AP:18, Overall:23-8, Conf:13-7)

I’m going to try my best to give an unbiased opinion on this team, but truly they have not performed well to end the year. Started out at 17-1 and went on to finish 6-7 in the last 13 games games. They finished 6th in the Big Ten and are looking at a 3 seed in the tournament currently. Can Matt Painter find some magic in the final stretch of the Braden Smith era?

The roster does have a bit of everything to succeed in March, but we have not seen that entirely during the season. The roster has a good mix between seniors and freshman/sophomores, with 4/5 of the starters being Seniors which should be a recipe for success in this day and age of college basketball. So why haven’t they succeeded? Even though they have the 2nd best offensive rating in the country, there have been serious times of inconsistency from the depth of the team. But the main issue is defensively, they have a defensive of rating of 101.1 which ranks 39th in the country. The ability to defend the three has been lackadaisical and when they lose, rebounding has been a huge problem.

With that said, this team has the ability to get hot in March and make a deep run. The seniors, Trey Kaufman-Renn, Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer, and Oscar Cluff will need to step up immensely during this run in March in order to succeed. Offensively this team is a very tough stop, can spread you out, attack the paint, and have the ability to crash the glass for second chance points.

Southeastern Conference

  1. Florida Gators(AP:4, Overall:25-6, Conf:16-2)

The defending National Champions led by Todd Golden, have done another fantastic job during the regular season. Back to back regular season champions in the SEC and are still looking to do damage in March. Between the veteran returners and a couple huge transfer portal recruits they have fully reloaded. They are currently seeded as the last #1 seed going into champ week.

Golden did a fantastic job of getting returners in Thomas Haugh, Alex Condon, and Ruben Chineylu. They were all big parts of the 24-25 Championship team and are having big roles again. Combine those three with two of the most highly recruited guards in the transfer portal in Xavien Lee and Boogie Fland, you have another contender on your hands. Both guards have had mediocre seasons by their standards, but in the last month they have been playing their best basketball of the season. If they continue to play well during March this team will be a real threat to go back to back.

They are top 10 in both Offensive and Defensive rating which is usually a recipe for success in latter days of March. They are playing as good as anyone in the country especially the Duke’s and Michigan’s in the last month. The one critique for this team is that they are one of the worst three point shooting team’s in the country. This forces them to get into the paint a lot more, which makes it easier for teams to defend.

2. Alabama Crimson Tide(AP:15, Overall:23-8, Conf:13-5)

Another year of the Crimson Tide being one of fastest pace team’s in the nation. The Nate Oats “no mid range jumpers” program has done another solid job during a grueling year in the SEC. Each year this team is one of the most entertaining team’s with how fast they play and the offense they run. The definition of “live and die by the three” is currently seeded as a 3 seed.

Nate Oats has done another job of getting guys who all have the ability to shoot. Their ability to spread team’s out on the offensive end, causes problems for team defensively. Lebaron Philon Jr. and Aden Holloway who are the leading scorers for the Tide is a testament to the Nate Oats offensive gameplan. Both have the ability to create their own shot, but also get into the paint and facilitate for open threes.

The downside to this team is on the other side of the ball. They have 103.5 defensive rating, which ranks 67th in the nation. Compared to the other team’s I have mentioned in this piece, they are not very big or lengthy. They have had trouble all year defending inside the paint and securing defensive rebounds, leading to second chance points. The other part of the problem is not just defensive, but protecting the basketball. Even though it has been the lowest turnover rate under the Oats regime, it is still one of their problems. This team can make it interesting in March, but compared to the other top contenders they will have to play perfect throughout the tournament in order to go on a run.

3. Arkansas Razorbacks(AP:16, Overall:23-8, Conf:13-5)

The Razorbacks led by the last Corleone, John Calipari who has done a phenomenal job with this group. In the era of the transfer portal, Calipari has stuck to recruiting and developing freshmen. This year its not different, with their two leading scorers being freshmen. One of them over the last month looking like the best point guard in the country! The Razorbacks are currently a 5 seed, looking to improve during the SEC tournament.

Obviously Calipari is one of the greatest coaches in developing young talent into NBA stars. He has two more this year in Darius Acuff Jr. and Maleek Thomas who have leveled this Arkansas team up over the past month. Acuff who has been the best point guard in the country is averaging 22.2 PPG, shooting 49% from the field and 43.7% from beyond the arc, while also averaging 6.4 APG. Thomas is averaging 15.4 PPG, while shooting 41.7% from deep. These guys obviously have been phenomenal for them, but they have veterans in Trevon Brazile, Billy Richmond III, DJ Wagner, and Nick Pringle who all have been catalyst to the success of this team this year.

Just like Alabama, its not the offensive side of the ball that is the problem. Throughout the recent year’s of Calipari’s team’s, they have not been great defensively. They rank 44th in defensive efficiency with a rating of 101.9. Another thing throughout the year that was a problem for them was injuries. It seemed that they always had a small rotation, but they are finally getting healthy in time to make noise in this year’s tournament.

4. Vanderbilt Commodores(AP:22, Overall:24-7, Conf:11-7)

The Commodores are led by Coach of the Year candidate Mark Byington. They were one of the biggest surprises in the SEC this year. It’s all credit to Byington adapting to the current state of college sports. They are a 4 seed in the SEC tournament and are currently sitting at a 5 seed in the NCAA tournament.

The guard play is why this team is so relevant and could potentially make some noise in March. The sophomore, Tyler Tanner is the main guy, averaging 19.2 PPG, 5.1 APG, and 2.5 steals per game. Watch for him to continue his great year and lead Vanderbilt to a run. He also has a great supporting cast around him with 5 others averaging 9+ points per game. Two of them are averaging 40% from the three point line in Tyler Nickel and AK Okereke.

They are not one of these lengthy and big team’s, but they can defend. Another testament to how well Byington has done. The one thing I noticed throughout the season was they do tend to struggle against more physical team’s. They are not a great rebounding team either, ranking in lower half of the SEC. Another fun team to watch during March, sure they can win a few games, but I do not know if they are more than a sweet sixteen team.

5. Tennessee Volunteers(AP:25, Overall:21-10, Conf:11-7)

Rick Barnes and the Volunteers have had their fair share of ups and downs this season. Struggled throughout the season to secure big wins, including 5 games where they were up double digits and failed to win them. They are the 5th seed in the SEC tournament and trying to gain some momentum headed into the NCAA tournament after their last regular season loss to Vanderbilt.

Despite them having an up and down year, as we all know anything can happen in March. They have a good amount of experience and one of the best freshman in the country in Nate Ament(17.4 PPG). Jakobie Gillepsie who is able to make plays on the offensive side of the ball as well, scoring 18 PPG with 5 APG. He just hasn’t been consistent enough throughout the year. They are second in total rebounding percentage and first in offensive rebounding percentage. As Barnes said, “Rebounding is our best offense”. This will be huge for the Volunteers moving forward, getting second chance points puts pressure on opponents defensively.

Defensively they have been top 15 in efficiency and have hold opponents on an average of 69 points per game. They have the talent and coach to make a sweet sixteen and possibly scare opponents for an elite eight appearance, but they need to find some momentum this week in the SEC tournament.

ATlantic coast conference

  1. Duke Blue Devils(AP: 1, Overall: 29-2, Conf: 17-1)

John Scheyer, the ACC Coach of the Year has this Duke team playing at one of the highest levels this game has seen. Not only are they at the top of KenPom, they have the second highest KenPom rating of all time behind the 1999 Duke team. The Blue Devils have everything to cut down the nets since 2015.

Firstly, the Blue Devils are 4th in ORtg and 1st in DRtg, which is a recipe for success. Defensively they make it incredibly tough on opponents, with their length and ability to switch on screens. Maliq Brown was ACC defensive player of the year, but Dame Sarr and Patrick Ngongba II are the real catalyst on this side of the ball. Sarr a freshman from Italy is a 6’8 guard and has incredible length to defend 1-4. Offensively this team has the ability to spread opponents out, while being a force on the inside. Isaiah Evans being one of those players to help spread the floor, the 6’6 sophomore has a flame thrower in his right hand. He can get hot at anytime. Combine this with the potential Wooden Award winner and top 3 draft pick in Cameron Boozer, who is the epitome of making winning plays on both ends of the court.

As I am writing this, the one concern for this team has grown. Caleb Foster the Blue Devils veteran starting point guard is out indefinitely with a fractured foot. Like Michigan, if the guard play does not step up during the month of March this team has a chance to get beat. The ACC tournament just got more interesting with no Caleb Foster and it seems they are resting Patrick Ngongba for NCAA tournament play. This means freshman Cayden Boozer is going to have to step up in a big way during this run. We will see how they play during the ACC tournament, but this is a huge loss.

2. Virginia Cavaliers(AP: 10, Overall:27-4, Conf:15-3)

The Cavaliers under first year head coach Ryan Odom have established themselves back into being a top team in the ACC and the country. Odom has brought back that defensive first playstyle like we saw under Tony Bennett, making it difficult for opponents to control the game. The Cavaliers head into the postseason as a 2 seed in the ACC tournament and a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament.

Odom has brought back the slow tempo Virginia Cavaliers back, being 269th in adjusted tempo. As well as having a top 15 defensive efficiency rating in the nation. Between the 7 footers of Johann Grunloh and Ugonna Onyensu(77 Blocks) they led the Cavaliers on the defensive side. Odom likes to utilize his bench a ton, with 9 players averaging over 15 minutes and 6 of them averaging over 20 minutes. This is a rare case nowadays, but it helps with consistent energy on the defensive side of the ball and can lead to scoring surges from a hot hand.

The Virginia Cavaliers are back to playing its brand of basketball. They have shown that throughout the year they can win a game in different ways, which is key in March. One thing I saw from the Hoos’ was at times the offense sputtered, which is something we have seen before from past Virginia team’s. Against the number 1 seeds in the tournament, it will be very difficult for the Cavaliers to execute at a high-level, but that does not mean they will not give those team’s games. Gaining some momentum in the ACC tournament will huge for them.

3. Miami Hurricanes(AP:NA, Overall: 24-7, Conf: 13-5)

My Hoosiers may have won the National Championship against the Hurricanes, but former Hoosier Malik Reneau is getting the last laugh in a basketball sense. The job that former Duke assistant Jai Lucas has done to turn this program around after being 7-24 in the 24-25 season is super impressive. They are a 7th seed in the dance currently and looking to move up during the ACC tournament.

When Lucas arrived he had to build the program from the ground up, no coaching staff or players left. Not a single returning player from 24-25 Miam team is on this roster. They have a great combination between upper classmen and freshmen. Malik Reneau, Tre Donaldson, and Ernest Udeh Jr being the upperclassmen role models for this team. Indiana fans like myself were tired of watching Reneau in the cream and crimson, but Jai Lucas has done a phenomenal job of putting him in positions where he is a threat and developing his three point shooting. Tre Donaldson who I’m sure Michigan fans were getting sick of as well, is also having his best season as a Senior.

No doubt has Jai done a phenomenal job this year and I am intrigued to see how they finish in the ACC tournament. But I just don’t see them making too much noise in the tournament. If they stay as a 7 seed, the 10 seeds are no slouch and it will be very difficult first round for them. Excited for the future of Miami under Jai Lucas.

4. North Carolina Tar Heels(AP: 19, Overall: 24-7, Conf: 12-6)

The iconic blue and white team under Hubert Davis has been quite interesting. A National Championship runner up, a sweet sixteen appearance, and a miss tournament appearance. I would say he has done a good job continuing North Carolina’s tradition of success. This year was even more success, but could it have been better?

They finished 4th in the ACC, which I thought was low for them this season. I know the ACC had a resurgence with the amount of elite coaches joined the league this season, but it seemed the Tar Heels were the second best team in the ACC. That was until their star freshman fractured his left hand against Miami, 3 days after knocking off #1 Duke. It looked like there was a chance for a return for the post season, until on March 5th Wilson broke his thumb in a non contact drill. Forcing him to prepare for the NBA draft this summer.

The Tar Heels went 5-2 to finish the regular season without Wilson. The senior Seth Trimble has stepped up to be a big time scorer for the Heels. They will need him to be their leader on the court in March if they want to make a sweet sixteen. As well as the rest of the team who may have not gotten crazy minutes, since Wilson took up all of it. Watching this team during the ACC tournament will give us an idea on if they can make a sweet sixteen or not.

5. Louisville Cardinals (AP: 24, Overall: 22-9, Conf: 11-7)

Pat Kelsey has done a fantastic job in just two year’s at the helm. Cardinal fans have to be pleased with this hire and bringing back the glory days of Louisville basketball. Kelsey has them playing at high-level offensively, where they are top 5 in ORtg. They want to get out and run in transition and thrive with high volume shooting. The Cardinals are a 6th seed in the ACC tournament and the NCAA tournament currently.

They are led by possibly the best backcourt in the nation, Ryan Conwell(transfer from Xavier) and freshman Mikel Brown Jr. Both are averaging 18 points on very efficient shooting. Between these two and Kelsey being one of my favorite coaches I could see this team making real noise in the tournament. But Brown since December 13th has missed 10 games and is still dealing with his back issue. Kelsey said he is day to day, making sure he is 100% before getting on the floor to compete for an ACC Championship.

If they want to win a ACC Championship and be a threat in the NCAA tournament, Brown is going to have to play. If he ends up playing, I would consider looking at placing a future of them winning the ACC Championship(NOT GAMBLING ADVICE). I truly do think this team can compete with anyone, but it relies on the health of players.

BIG 12

  1. Arizona Wildcats(AP:2, Overall:29-2, Conf:16-2)

The Wildcats finished as the Big 12 regular season champions under Tommy Lloyd. He has led the Wildcats to 3 regular season championships in his 5 year’s at the helm. Lloyd has the Wildcats as another 1 seed in the tournament and looking to continue this great year.

What I like about this team is they have a good mix of freshmen and upperclassman, sort of like Duke. Their backcourt consist of Big 12 player of the year and Senior Jaden Bradley(11.8 PPG, 4.6APG). As well as their leading scorer in freshman Brayden Berries(16.0 PPG, 5RPG, 2.6 APG). Two solid players, one with experience and the other who has the ability to create his own shot. While the frontcourt consist of top 10 draft pick Koa Peat(6’8), freshman Ivan Kharchenkov(6’7), and Motiejus Krivas(7’2). While on the bench they have two guys who are averaging around 9 PPG.

Obviously this team is built to win in March between a great front and back court. They are top 10 in both ORtg and DRtg and are number 3 overall in the KenPom. I will say the team does rely on being more physical in the paint than outside shooting offensively. When they face higher pressure defenses they could get stagnant and tend to go on scoring droughts. Overall though, it is final four or bust with how good of a year they have had with this type of talent.

2. Houston Cougars(AP:5, Overall: 26-5, Conf:14-4)

The Houston Cougars will be in the field for the either consecutive time under head coach Kelvin Sampson. They have been in the final four twice since 2014 and looking to be in Indianapolis in early April once again. Obviously this team is one of the toughest wins and they will beat you up on the defensive end. They finished second in the Big 12 and are looking at a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament.

The Cougars under Sampson have always been known for their hawking defense. This year it is no different, with a defensive efficiency rating of 92.6, which ranks 6th in the nation. They have a great combination of two elite freshmen and returners from last year’s final four team. The backcourt trio consist of freshman Kingston Flemings(16.5 PPG 5.4 APG), Sr. Milos Uzan(11.5 PPG 4.1 APG), and Sr. Emmanuel Sharp(15.8 PPG). Uzan and Sharp are a huge part of the leadership on this team and will be moving forward. Flemings came out the gates hot from the start of the season till now. Trending to be a top 5 pick. The front court consist of 6’11 freshman, Chris Cenac Jr and 6’8 junior Joseph Tugler. Cenac has really come into his own over the course of the year and has been come catalyst for the Cougars in the rebounding department.

If you watched the Houston team last few year’s, they love to shoot threes. Like a lot of these team’s in the field, if they do not shoot well from deep they will have to find other ways to score. Which I believe they can, Uzan and Flemings are shifty guards and able to get paint touches. I like this team a lot and can definitely be a championship contender.

3. Kansas Jayhawks(AP:14, Overall:22-9, Conf:12-6)

The Jayhawks are headed to the NCAA tournament for the 22nd time under Bill Self. And let me tell you. This might be one of the weirdest team’s he has ever coached. This season in particular was a testament to how good of a coach Self is. From whether or not their best player was going to suit up that night. With that said the Jayhawks are looking like a 4 seed in the NCAA tournament.

I’m not gonna get into the Darryn Peterson drama, but I am excited to see him compete during this time of the year. Kansas could be an interesting dark horse with him playing at a high-level. When Peterson doesn’t play, this team is composed as it gets, especially their guards. Tre White and transfer Melvin Council Jr. have done a phenomenal job stepping up offensively. As well as Flory Bidunga who has been great throughout the year for the Jayhawks. He averaging 13.8 PPG, 9.0 RPG, and 2.7 BPG. One of the best rim protectors in the nation and continues to improve.

Defensively they are top 10 in efficiency, a lot of defense to offense. But when they get into the half court, it can turn into a stagnant sets and not getting good shots. Darryn Peterson obviously helps a ton in that sense and it will be interesting to see how he is moving during Big 12 tournament. They can be a second round exit or make an elite eight and possibly a final four.

4. Texas Tech Red Raiders(AP:16, Overall: 22-9, Conf: 12-6)

In three year’s under Grant McCasland the Red Raiders have made the tournament three times. This has been one of his best team’s he has had during his tenure. One that I found really fun to watch, which is a testament to McCasland and his ability to run this offense. Under him they have always been a tough out and are usually a very physical team. They are looking at a 4 seed currently.

Before the season ending ACL tear for JT Toppin I could have seen this team making a final four, but with the junior out it changes this team’s dynamic. Led the team in points and rebounds, while making winning plays on both sides of the floor. Now the forwards of Luke Bamgboye and Josiah Moseley have to step up immensely. They have an awesome backcourt with Christian Anderson and Donovan Atwell, who are able to score the ball at will. These two are going to have to play big minutes during this time in order for Texas Tech to be successful.

It is a super unfortunate injury for JT who was looking like a possible Wooden Award Winner and easily Big 12 player of the year. I still do think this team will be successful in March, but not as successful as I thought before the injury. McCasland can get his guys to compete anywhere and they will be tough out. We will see how good they look in the Big 12 tournament.

5. Iowa State Cyclones(AP:7, Overall: 25-6, Conf:12-6)

The Cyclones have been another one of my favorite team’s to watch throughout the season. T.J. Otzelberger is one my favorite coaches in the nation and has done a fantastic job since arriving in 2021. The roster is constructed in a way that is able to win a National Championship. Good guard play, shooting, and can defend. The Cyclones look to be a 3 seed in March and can definitely make run this year.

Under Otzelberger, the Cyclones have been a team of physicality and defensive prowess. This year it is no different, being one of the best defensive team’s in the country, with a 7th ranked defensive rating. Offensively every player in the starting lineup averages above 8 points, which shows how much they share the ball. They are able to spread the floor with perimiter shooting, such as Milan Momcilovic who is averaging 50% from deep! They have a veteran ball handler in Tamin Lipsey who can penetrate and make plays for his teammates. But the catalyst for this Cyclones team is Joshua Jefferson. He basically does it all as a 6’9 forward, averaging 16.6 PPG, 7.4 RPG, and 5.0 APG.

They have veterans combined with freshmen who have made big impacts through the season. They have a good presence from the bench which include, Fr. Jamarion Batemon, Sr. Nate Heise, and Fr. Dominykas Pleta. There are times offensively with this team, where it gets stagnant and becomes iso ball, but other than I love this team headed into March. I would look at them winning the Big 12 Championship.

Big East, WEST Coast Conference, atlantic 10

  1. Big East

I’ll start with the Big East, usually my favorite conference to watch. This year it was not, the product was very much so down, but with the new coaching additions I do think this will change next year. The three team’s that are headed to the tournament are UConn, St. Johns, and Villanova.

We will begin with the Big East regular season champions, the St. John’s Red Storm coached by the Godfather, Rick Pitino. Another solid year for the Johnnies that is built around defensive toughness and a lot of older experienced players. Pitino plays close to a 10-man rotation with 6 of them averaging 8 points or more. Unlike last year’s St John’s team they have the ability to shoot the ball, they are 35% on the year. That being said, the offense can still get stagnant and rely on isolations too much. Zuby Ejefor the Big East Player of the Year is looking to end his career with a deep run in March. Do I think they are a final four team? No, but they can definitely give team’s problems, but they will need play close to perfect to go on a deep run.

The Hurley Huskies are looking to do what the 23′ and 24′ team’s successfully did, win a National Championship. Hurley has this team rolling on the defensive side of the ball, they are top 10 in opponents points per game. This is a testament to the players being able to switch 1-5, which allows for flexibility against opponents. Offensively, they are still top 25 in the country, but definitely not like those 23′ and 24′ team’s. The guards of Silas Demary Jr., Solomon Ball, and Braylon Mullins are going to need to be playing their best in order for this team to go deep in the tournament. As well as Tarris Reed Jr. staying out of foul trouble, who is the catalyst to this team defensively. They need to find some momentum in the Big East tournament after a rough loss to Marquette to close the regular season. This team is very capable of getting back to the final four and compete for a National Championship.

The Villanova Wildcats are looking to be back in the Big Dance since their final four run in 2022. First time since the retiring of the legendary Jay Wright. Kevin Willard is continuing his success after coaching Maryland to an Elite Eight in 2024. This team is anchored by the guard trio of Acaden Lewis(12.5 PPG 5.3 APG), Tyler Perkins(13.7 PPG 5.5 RPG), and Bryce Lindsay(11.9PPG). They have the ability to spread the floor, score, and play make. As well as having 3 other players averaging 9 points per game. They have a top 30 defense in efficiency, but the one problem for this team is their size. Which leads to problems against team’s who are much bigger than them. The Wildcats are looking like a 7th seed currently and can definitely win their first round matchup, after that I am not so sure. Will be intrigued to see how they play in the Big East tournament and try to gain some confidence entering the big bracket.

2. West Coast Conference

The Big East of the west as some would like to call this conference. Usually dominated by Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s with two of the best coaches in the nation in Mark Few and Randy Bennett. This year was no different, but with a new name in the mix, Santa Clara.

We will begin with the 23 time WCC tournament champions, Gonzaga. Mark Few plays a very deep lineup with 10 players averaging over 15 minutes per game, with 6 of them averaging more than 20 minutes per game. The front court is where they are dominate with Graham Ike and the complementary piece of Braden Huff. Huff currently has not played since January 8th. Looks to return first weekend of the tournament. They are the leading scorers on this team and are huge pieces defensively. They are a top 10 team in KenPom, but they still don’t move me in a sense of an sweet sixteen or elite eight team. They lack guard play and the two centers are not players to rely on down the stretch of big games.

The Saint Mary’s Gaels have started to turn into a mid-major powerhouse under Randy Bennett. They are led by the guard and forward duo of Mikey Lewis(14.2 PPG, 37% 3PP) and Paulius Murauskas(18.8 PPG 7.7 RPG). Joshua Dent has also blossomed into a fantastic guard for the Gaels, averaging 13 PPG and 5.7 APG. Obviously each year I am worry of these WCC team’s because the conference is not that competitive besides the top parts of the league. With that said they can spread the floor with their elite perimeter shooting, 38% 3PP on the year. While they have a top 20 defense in efficiency. They are looking like a 7th seed currently and like I said before the 10 seeds are better than last year which could give them a problem.

Finally the runner up in the WCC tournament this year, The Santa Clara Broncos. They are currently in the last four byes as a 10 seed in the NCAA tournament. As it stands they will stay there with how weak the bubble is this year. Offensively this team is top 25 in efficiency and this is to their guard play, the ability to move the move the ball and facilitate. While defensively they rank 73rd in efficiency rating, they will struggle against higher level competition like the Gonzaga’s who are bigger and more physical. Like I said with Saint Mary’s the 7 vs 10 games are going to be very interesting this year. I do not see this team making it out of the first weekend.

3. Atlantic 10

This is my favorite mid-major conference to watch throughout the season. Highly competitive games and you can see the coaching impact each team. This year they had two team tie for the regular season title, Saint Louis Billikens and the VCU Rams who went 15-3. As it stands Saint Louis who was ranked top 25 to finish the end of the last month looks to be in, but VCU is currently in the last four in. Atlantic 10 tournament is massive for VCU to continue their strong season. There could also be a bid stealer like a Saint Joseph’s, Dayton, or George Mason who have had a solid year.

I will talk about the bubble later, which will contain some VCU talk. But for right now I will be talking about the Billikens led by head coach Josh Schertz. They are well rounded team offensively with 7 players averaging at least 9 points per game. Robbie Avila is obviously the star of this team, whose averaging 12.6 PPG, 4.5 RPG, and 4.1 APG. He also shooting 50% from the field and 42% from beyond the arc. If you have the time, turn on the Atlantic 10 tournament and watch this team, it is a pleasure to watch. High-level offense run and defensively they are very solid. One of those team’s everyone will root for in March and they definitely can make it hard on team’s.

Bracket Wreckers

As most of you know, last year’s NCAA tournament was a chalk year with all 1 seeds making it to the final four. I do not think it will be to that extent this year, with so many different developing stories the past week. Also I believe the 4,5,6 seeds this year are tougher to beat for the higher seeds. Some of the team’s I would personally look into that we haven’t already talked about is Wisconsin, UCLA, BYU, Georgia, and Ohio State. These are some 6,7,8, and 9 seeds that we haven’t touched on who can make some noise in this tournament.

Obviously all of you are looking for the 11,12,13 upset. I won’t be able to tell you all of them since the bracket and matchups are not officially out. Some I would look into that have either qualified or are looking like they will qualify would be Northern Iowa, McNeese, South Florida, and now Akron after Miami OH lost. Akron and South Florida are the two highest in analytics and are definitely ones to look at to advance in the first round. Northern Iowa I like their coach in Ben Jacobson who has been at Northern Iowa since 2006, as well as they are top 25 in defensive efficiency. McNeese is continuing their run from last year after Will Wade and look even better. They have a very deep bench and have pretty good efficiency in both offense and defense for a mid-major team.

This is always the first question when the bracket first releases. “What are going to be the upsets on the first two days?” The landscape of college basketball has changed a ton with NIL, but I don’t think the “Cinderella” is truly dead yet(well I hope so). Anyway nobody has ever had a perfect bracket, so do not overthink the upsets and just feel it out. Look at the matchups and see where one team might have an advantage and stick with it.

The Busted Bubble

Compared to last year this is the weakest bubble that we have seen. A great reason for why the NCAA committee should not even think about expanding this beautiful tournament. The bubble over the past week has not changed that much, but today with Miami OH loss to UMass it will change some things up.

The Bubble as it stands currently per Joe Linardi:

  • LAST FOUR BYES
    • NC State
    • UCF
    • Santa Clara
    • Miami OH
  • Last Four In
    • Missouri
    • VCU
    • Texas
    • SMU
  • First Four Out
    • Auburn
    • Indiana
    • New Mexico
    • Oklahoma
  • Next Four Out
    • Stanford
    • San Diego St
    • Cincinnati
    • Virginia Tech

This is the Bubble as it stands and honestly I do not think it will change from this. As much as I want to argue for my Hoosiers, none of those first four out team’s deserve to be in. The only way it changes right now is if a team steals a bid in the conference tournaments.

End of the year predictions

John Wooden Award: Cameron Boozer

Werner Ladder Naismith Coach of the Year: Dusty May

Conference Tournament Champions:

  • Big Ten: Michigan
  • SEC: Florida
  • ACC: Virginia
  • Big 12: Iowa State
  • Big East: St John’s
  • Atlantic 10: VCU

Final Four Predictions:

  1. Illinois
  2. Michigan
  3. Houston
  4. Arizona

Well if you have made it to the end of this piece, truly I want to thank you for taking your time and reading this. I wanted to write this piece for those who have not watched much College Basketball, but fall in love with March Madness. It is truly the best time of the year for all and I’m pumped for it to begin next week.

Disclaimer: All the information provided is from ESPN, Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology, KenPom, Teamrankings.com, NCAA, Big Ten, SEC, ACC, and Big 12 websites. All the rights belong to their perspective owners and information is used for commentary purposes.

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